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Oil futures prices soared Experts: the upward momentum weakened, the market outlook needs to be cautious

September 14, 2021

   News from the financial community network on March 23. The domestic futures market closed at 15:00 today. The oil and fats sector rose collectively. Palm oil futures main contract p2105 rose 4.70%, setting a new eight-year high. The main contract of soybean oil futures y2105 rose 3.36%, and the main contract of vegetable oil futures O105 rose 2.47%.

   In the market last night, the CBOT May soybean oil futures daily limit rose 2.5 cents during the day to 56.37 cents per pound, a new high since September 2012.

Zhongzhou Futures analyst Wu Xiaojie said that an important driver for the U.S. soybean rise is the weather hype of the new US soybeans. The hype period is likely to be from May to August. Strong upward drive.

  Ma Palm sharply increases palm oil production

MPOB announced that Malaysia’s palm oil output in February was 1.106 million tons, a decrease of 1.9% from the previous month. The recovery of output was much lower than market expectations. Previously, the agency estimated that output was flat or increased by about 5%, mainly due to fewer working days and insufficient labor. The traditional February output usually shows a seasonal downward trend. Malaysian palm oil plantation workers are partially foreign workers. The epidemic and movement restriction policies have made it more difficult to recruit foreign workers, and labor shortages have emerged.

Guo Wenwei, an oil researcher at Huishang Futures, said that the oil market is currently in strong reality and weak expectations. The short-term supply shortage is mainly due to the delay in Brazil’s harvest progress, Malaysian palm oil inventories are significantly lower than expected, and domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are still in history. The low impact, but with the continuous increase in the supply of high-yield Brazilian soybeans to the global market this year, the seasonal increase in Malaysian palm oil production has resumed, the supply pressure has gradually appeared, and the upward momentum of palm oil has gradually weakened.

Merya Futures analysts said that the harvest and export of soybeans in Brazil continued to advance, and the growth environment of Argentina's soybeans improved slightly but the excellent and good rate was still low; US soybean exports were slowing down, stocks in the aging season were tight, and the market lacked new information and guidance. Continue to seek support at the 1400 integer mark. In the first 20th of March, the export of Mapan palm turned positive from the previous month and the increase in output narrowed. Coupled with the sharp rise of US soybean oil, Mapan palm oil stopped falling and rebounded. Domestic oil and fat inventories continue to decline, supply pressure is not strong, spot prices have stopped falling, high-priced downstream purchases and sales are cautious, and oil spot trading volume is not large; however, driven by cost-side trends, oils continue to rebound, and many orders continue to be held in the early period.

   The price of fats and oils soars, the market outlook needs to be cautious

   The market is currently waiting for the 2021 crop planting intention report issued by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on April 1, which is likely to have an impact on market trends.

CITIC Futures believes that the recent staggered long and short prices have caused oil prices to fluctuate at a high level. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the continuity of China Grain's oil sales. In the medium and long-term fundamentals, La Niña will not change the palm oil production expectations this year. Some institutions expect a large increase in production in March. The arrival of South American soybeans to Hong Kong will increase marginally until the end of May, and the domestic downstream is still in the off-season for consumption. It is expected that domestic supply and demand will tend to be loose for a long time and remain the main tone. Therefore, considering the macroeconomic and fundamental factors, the expectation that the oil price axis will move downward is still maintained in the medium and long term. Continue to pay attention to downstream transactions in the later period.

Changan Futures analyst Hu Xinge said that South American soybeans are coming to Hong Kong one after another, the US soybean sales window is coming to an end, short-term lack of upward mobility, but the support of its own tight supply and demand pattern exists, US soybeans may still maintain a high and fluctuating trend, so the cost of soybean oil Although the boost is not strong, the support has not been broken. The unexpected increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the dumping of domestic soybean oil reserves are the main factors that have triggered the recent sharp decline in oil prices. However, summing up its own fundamentals, we find that although palm oil is in the production increase cycle, the inventory base at the end of February is very low. It still takes time to reverse the tight supply and demand pattern. On the domestic supply side, the oil mills' crushing capacity is at a staged low level. Soybean oil inventory levels are still at a low level. It is still difficult to recover, and the dumping of 20,000 tons of reserves is difficult to form substantial fundamentals. As a result, the tight supply and demand pattern of oils has not yet been reversed. In the short term, there may be a need to make up for the gains and stabilize after the emotional negatives are completely released. For high-level short orders, pay attention to lighten up or leave the market in time.

Oil futures prices soared Experts